Dodger Thoughts

Friday, February 13, 2004

 

Sucker's Walk

Yeah, I'll admit it - I'm a sucker for people who approach their jobs by asking, "If we weren't already doing it this way, is this the way we would start?"

That's one of the sentiments expressed by purported Dodger general manager Paul DePodesta in a Credit Suisse First Boston Thought Leader Forum speech that has been circulating around the Internet recently.

DePodesta doesn't advocate change for the sake of change. In some instances, the answer to the question above will be affirmative. But life changes, information grows, and most of all, we don't know everything. DePodesta's question combines humility with a determination to do better. It's the right attitude to have.

Technically, at least, the Dodgers have other general manager candidates to replace Danglin' Dan Evans. One who would like to be considered is Jim Bowden, former general manager of the Cincinnati Reds.

Although his name grew familiar to many of us during his 11 years with the Reds, let's not forget that Bowden was once a boy wonder like DePodesta. Until Theo Epstein came around, Bowden was the youngest general manager in big-league history, hired at age 31 - the same age DePodesta is now.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports Weekly wrote a column about Bowden this week, in which the following quote appears.

"It would be fun to go to a big market, though, and have a chance to win year after year," Bowden told Nightengale. "If I can be creative with a payroll in the forites and fifties, I can be creative with a budget in the hundreds.

"I look at the Dodgers, and think, how can you have the best pitching staff in the league and score less runs than the Tigers? Come on. You've got to do something."

I look at Bowden's words, and wonder what kind of wall I can build to keep him out of Los Angeles.

First of all, creative is a nice mantra to bandy about, but Bowden creatively presided over a team that had six losing seasons out of 11, including the past three, most of the time in the National League's weakest division. Of course, the payroll limitations Bowden cites are legitimate, but for him to brag about his record is silly.

As far as the second half of Bowden's quote, many people would agree. One of those agreeing would be Dan Evans.

The idea that Evans didn't think something should be done to improve the offense is preposterous. No, he didn't succeed yet, and his signing of OBP-challenged Juan Encarnacion (a former Bowden acquisition) raised questions anew about his ability to do so.

On the other hand, Evans reduced the payroll, nurtured the farm system - and oh yeah, built that great pitching staff, the accomplishment many find it so easy to dismiss. He laid the groundwork to acquire some hitting, which he no doubt could have done had Frank McCourt's ownership approval needs not interfered.

Now, it's one thing for you and I to shoot the breeze, in conversation or in print, and say that the Dodgers need offense. But for a baseball executive like Bowden to take simplistic pot shots at a counterpart, without any evidence he could do the job better - that guy needs his ego balloon popped.

Combine Bowden's statement with the incident back in 2001, when Bowden tried to big-time Evans by refusing to discuss business at baseball's winter meetings until Tommy Lasorda was in the room, and Bowden sounds like the big-headed spawn of our last general manager debacle, Sheriff Kevin Malone.

"I don't want to sound arrogant or brash, but there's no doubt in my mind that I can turn the Dodgers into winners again," Bowden later tells Nightengale. "If I did it in Cincinnati, I sure can do it in L.A."

You had two division titles in 11 years at Cincinnati, Jim. Even the Dodgers can match that - with more than twice as many winning seasons to boot.

Guess how you sound.

Not like someone who would come into a situation with the ethic and flexibility to best determine how to improve a baseball team.

Nightengale writes that Bowden "definitely" deserves at least consideration for the job. Maybe you just need to get to know Bowden for that to become apparent. Maybe you just need to not challenge Bowden when he says that under him, the Reds "finished in first place three times," when it only happened twice. In any case, Nightengale doesn't make a very good case for Bowden with this article.

There are three threads spooling with the Dodger general manager position. There is the incumbent, Evans, who is not perfect, but who in less than three years on the job has removed much of the organizational dead weight and made the idea of long-term success possible.

There is his boss, McCourt, whose sincerity in telling us that Evans is a candidate to keep his job is dubious. (I guess McCourt would argue that he is no different than Democracy itself, which this year will tell George W. Bush whether he can keep his job.)

And there are the candidates. I honestly don't know that much about DePodesta. I've read Moneyball and I've read his speech and I've paid attention to the success of the Oakland A's and what other people say about him, but I'm not going to be the one to argue that I possess a wealth of knowledge about DePodesta. I know he has a bright mind and a sabermetric mind - which to be clear, doesn't prize one stat or another over all else, but factual knowledge over all else.

I don't know if DePodesta is the answer. But yes, based on the information I have, I'd rather that the clumsy McCourt take a chance on him than any other outside candidate.

If I'm wrong about DePodesta, I'll do the Sucker's Walk - with McCourt leading the way.
Jon Weisman (link)

 

New Location for Dodger Thoughts

http://www.all-baseball.com/dodgerthoughts

or

www.DodgerThoughts.com

Hi, everyone.

First, thanks again for all your support of this site, and welcome to the many new readers that have come in recent days and weeks. Site readership has practically doubled since the New Year began, and it has probably quintupled since the end of the 2003 season. I hope to continue to justify your clicks and bookmarks.

Speaking of which ... that day has come for you to reset your bookmark list. Dodger Thoughts has become an official member of the All-Baseball.com network, featuring many of the best baseball writers around. This site is joining The Cub Reporter and The Transaction Guy by Christian Ruzich, the Will Carroll Weblog, Alex Belth's Bronx Banter and Mike's Baseball Rants along with fellow new members Baysball, Peter J. White/Mariner Musings and Bryan Smith/Wait Til Next Year.

The new URL for Dodger Thoughts is http://www.all-baseball.com/dodgerthoughts. I am also pleased to announce that I have registered the www.DodgerThoughts.com domain name. Typing in that URL should take you directly to the new All-Baseball.com location.

My approach to Dodger Thoughts won't be affected by the move; my goal is still to try to find insight about the team and the game when I can ... and keep my mouth, or fingers, shut when I can't. But I do hope that the closer link with these fine writers will yield additional benefits, perhaps through collaborative efforts or by building respect as a group for what I think has become a worthwhile outlet for baseball coverage.

I'm also pleased to say that for the first time, you will be able to add your comments directly to Dodger Thoughts postings. I'm not shutting my e-mail door - not by a longshot - but I'm all for creating a Dodger Thoughts community and dialogue for anyone who's interested. Of course, just play by the rules of decorum that we've come to appreciate - keep it cool and keep it clean. (Although I use profanity all too regularly offline, I do hope to make people of all ages feel welcome at Dodger Thoughts, so please refrain from using it in your comments.)

You'll also see that the new site comes with a search function, which I hope will make it easier for you to find past articles on any subject I have covered since my first post in July 2002.

We'll be tinkering a little bit over the coming days as everyone settles in at their new sites - there's still some tweaks in the look and the functionality of the site that we'd like to make. So be patient - but feel free to offer suggestions.

For now, I will be using the nice, long weekend to have a nice, long weekend. Look for new content at the new location on Tuesday. Until then, have a great weekend, and get ready for pitchers and catchers to report to Vero Beach next week!
Jon Weisman (link)

Thursday, February 12, 2004

 

A Farm Report

While I try to find the time to put together an entry on generalmanagerdom, enjoy this review of the Dodger farm system by ESPN.com's John Sickels.
Jon Weisman (link)

Wednesday, February 11, 2004

 

Bard Scores Again

The Score Bard has updated his website, The Humbug Journal with a great new look - and redrawn his world-famous Periodic Table of Blogs. Dodger Thoughts has cleverly been moved to the La slot. (Lanthanum is "silvery white, malleable, ductile, and soft enough to be cut with a knife.")


Much more than a blog, The Humbug Journal is like recess breaking up another slow day in class.
Jon Weisman (link)

 

The Youth Market

Raul Mondesi's agreement with Mario Guerrero, that bound him to pay a percentage of his career earnings to his former coach, is symptomatic of a widespread effort by Dominican Republic coaches to get a greater "return on investment" for their efforts in tutoring childhood ballplayers, according to baseball writer and broadcaster Carlos J. Lugo:

Lugo, who told me in an e-mail that Mondesi "had actually signed a written agreenment with Guerrero," according to other news reports, put the case in perspective:

What's in the background of this (not specifically in this case in particular but in general) I think is more interesting. Our country is transformed into a baseball player factory or some sort of assembly line. Everywhere you can see young kids playing ball, and the sad part is that they're not exactly playing for the fun of it (as I did and as you did) but trying to become professional baseball players.

As a consequence, an informal industry has arisen around the MLB teams academies and operations. The lack of a more formal or structured development chain - like school or little leagues in the U.S. - resulted in some kind of "informal development chain" that started in disorganized little league teams, where the "coach" gave the basic training to the kids until they approached 15 to 17 years of age, an age when they show if they're signable...

These "coaches" are the first ones looking for some sort of "return on investment," and what they're doing lately is signing some sort of formal contract where they get the player to share one fraction of their signing bonuses, or, if they're as wise and lucky as Guerrero, hit the jackpot with a guy that eventually make it to the big leagues and becomes a regular player.

A couple of years ago, I wrote an article for a local publication about the "Little Leagues" in the San Pedro de Macorís area ... and was kind of surprised to what I found. My goal was to do some research and see where guys like Pedro Guerrero, Sammy Sosa, Tony Fernandez or Alfonso Soriano came from, and how it is. What I found was a bunch of "coaches" trying to explain me how this nine-year old child had good hands and a good bat and was "projectable" to be a great shortstop and a chance to be signed in six or seven years.

Those people are pretty much doing the same thing as Mario Guerrero, identifying guys with athletic ability and trying to produce a pro-baseball player and see if they can make good money in the process. I don't know if this is unethical because that's "their job," that's what "they do," but there's no doubt that money is a more important factor than it was 10 or 20 years ago.

Aside from having my curiosity about Dominican Republic baseball renewed this week, my immediate thought upon reading Lugo's report was about coaches, kids and parents in the United States. Somewhere, there must be a youth coach, one who previously only dreamed of a paid trip to Williamsport, Pennsylvania and some national television exposure with the Little League World Series, now dreaming of getting a renewable early-bird fee for sheperding a future major leaguer. Will U.S. coaches now dream about becoming so valuable as baseball instructors that they will try to convince parents of nine-year-old children to sign long-term deals giving the coach a percentage of their career earnings?

On the one hand, it seems far-fetched. On the other, this country certainly has families who can't afford the flat fee for extra baseball tutoring but would be willing to gamble on future earnings. After all, 1 percent is still only 1 percent.
Jon Weisman (link)

 

DePodesta Era To Begin

Peter Gammons of ESPN.com reports that Paul DePodesta will be hired as general manager for the Dodgers this weekend. (Thanks to Jason Harris for the timely alert.)

Gammons has been wrong before, but I have the feeling he's right this time.

I have all the hopes in the world for DePodesta, I really do, but Evans deserved better. He rescued a sinking ship and was poised to raise the sails, only to have someone drill a hole underneath him.

May you live in interesting times, as they say ...

(Before leaving with his $500,000 salary and his dignity intact, Dan Evans signed Guillermo Mota to a one-year contract for $1.475 million, leaving Eric Gagne as the Dodgers' only potential salary arbitration case.)
Jon Weisman (link)

Tuesday, February 10, 2004

 

Insightful - and Funny

Read Kevin Modesti in the Daily News today. But don't challenge him to a fistfight.
Jon Weisman (link)

 

One Step Removed

Twice in the past week, including Monday, ESPN.com's Rob Neyer has cited work on Baseball Primer for his column on platoon splits and the idea that in order to hit lefties well, you must be able to hit righties well (which I elaborated on here).

Insightful thinking is getting noticed, at least in the baseball world. Congratulations to MGL, Steve Treder and others whose work has been recognized (although hopefully not misappropriated) by Neyer and others.
Jon Weisman (link)

 

$10 Million Left

Twenty-two players, $89.75 million.

That's where the Dodgers stand in salary committments today, with players signed and players destined to be signed via arbitration or contract renewals.

Kurt, the author of Arrive in the Third, Leave After Seven, e-mailed me a link to a syndicated Vero Beach Press Journal interview with Dodger owner Frank McCourt. The Q & A contains the usual McCourt platitudes, Florida style, but McCourt does reiterate that "I just wanted to assure the fans we're going to have a $100 million payroll and this is a major market team."

So, even without a trade, the Dodgers have approximately $10 million to spend. While they may not want to bump against that limit in February, that's still a big nugget. Were they to trade Odalis Perez' $5 million salary, they would have even more room.

Ostensibly, three slots on the 25-man roster remain. If Darren Dreifort (or anyone, for that matter) starts the season on the disabled list, four slots remain. At least one of those slots, if not two, will go to a minimum-wage pitcher, like Steve Colyer or Edwin Jackson. That leaves $9 million to $14 million to spend on two hitters, or on a single hitter if you keep a low-cal guy like Joe Thurston or Jose Hernandez.

Something can still be done.

Dodger 2004 Salary Commitments

Player	Salary
Shawn Green	$16.0 million
Darren Dreifort	$11.0 million
Hideo Nomo	$8.0 million
Todd Hundley	$6.5 million
Adrian Beltre	$5.0 million
Odalis Perez	$5.0 million
Jeff Weaver	*$4.75 million
Paul Lo Duca	$3.9 million
Paul Shuey	$3.8 million
Juan Encarnacion	$3.5 million
Kazuhisa Ishii	$2.6 million
Brian Jordan	**$2.5 million
Tom Martin	$1.65 million
Wilson Alvarez	$1.5 million
Alex Cora	$1.3 million
Robin Ventura	$1.2 million
Jolbert Cabrera	$1.0 million
Dave Roberts	$0.975 million
Bubba Trammell	***$0.3 million
Total	$80.475 million

*$6.25 million minus Yankee contribution of $1.5 million
**Buyout of 2004 option
***Yankees paying remainder of $1.85 million salary commitment

Additional Dodger 2004 Salary Estimates

Player	Salary
Eric Gagne	$6.5 million
Guillermo Mota	$1.5 million
Cesar Izturis	$0.5 million
Dave Ross	$0.4 million
Total	$8.9 million

Player Distribution
Catchers (3): Hundley, Lo Duca, Ross
Infielders (5): Beltre, Cora, Ventura, Cabrera, Izturis
Outfielders (4): Green, Encarnacion, Roberts, Trammell
Starting pitchers (6): Dreifort, Nomo, Perez, Weaver, Ishii, Alvarez
Relief pitchers (4): Shuey, Martin, Gagne, Mota
Jon Weisman (link)

 

A Stanford Man in the House

Ruben Amaro, Jr., who played on Stanford's first College World Series championship team in 1987 when I was a sophomore there, has interviewed for the Dodger general manager position.

With none on and one out in the bottom of the 10th inning in an elimination game against Louisiana State, and the Cardinal facing a 5-2 deficit, Amaro walked and later scored on the greatest hit in Stanford history, a grand slam off Ben McDonald by freshman Paul Carey.

Amaro is the assistant general manager of the Philadelphia Phillies. He had an OPS of .663 in 485 major league games with the Phillies, Angels and Indians. Interestingly, his career batting average was .001 higher than his father's.

And that's what I know, so far...

Update: "If I think that Ruben Amaro is only being interviewed because he is a minority, does that make me a cynic?"Dodger Thoughts reader Chris Hamilton asks. "Looks like McCourt has just about wrapped up the GM search."
Jon Weisman (link)

 

If You're Feeling Really Blue ...

It ain't my style, but it's clever. Dodger Blues can point you to the wardrobe for those who want to express their frustration with the Dodgers: Chavez Latrine T-shirts and souvenirs.
Jon Weisman (link)

 

Mondesi Forced To Pay 1 Percent of Career Earnings

Ex-Dodger Raul Mondesi has been forced by a Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic court to pay 1 percent of the money he has earned in his baseball career, plus interest, to former major leaguer Mario Guerrero - an amount totaling more than $1 million.

The story tip comes via e-mail from Raul Tavares, rapidly becoming a Dodger Thoughts Dominican correspondent. According to the report published on the official Dominican League website, Guerrero initiated his case in 1998, based on a verbal agreement he made years before when he became Mondesi's coach and advisor. Tavares added that bank accounts in Mondesi's name have been frozen.

A story on Listin Diario reports that Guerrero and Mondesi made their agreement before Mondesi, currently looking for a major league job, signed with the Dodgers in 1988. Mondesi owes approximately $640,000 in salary and $422,000 in interest, the site reports.

Guerrero previously won a similar case against another former Dodger, Geronimo Berroa, according to Tavares.

Here is a link to the story in Spanish - the humorous Google translation, in which Mondesi becomes a "Domincan gardener" instead of "El jardinero dominicano," should be here, if I could get the link to work. You may have to hunt for it - though I'm sure the American wire services will pick up the story soon enough. Or, you can try translating the story on Systran.

Update: For more on this story, see Wednesday's Dodger Thoughts posting.

In other news from Tavares:

On the 1030 AM radio program, Analizando el Beisbol, Dodger pitcher Odalis Perez said that he does not expect to be in a Dodger uniform in 2004, at least not for very long.

According to Tavares, Perez said that he regrets the situation that arose from his comments on the team's offensive woes, and that he does want to remain a Dodger, but that management thinks of him as a distraction.

Tavares said that Perez did stand by his comments, because he said the truth, even if no one wanted to hear it.

Tavares also added his own take on the comeback of Henry Rodriguez:

In his last effort to come back, he and the fans had a very sad experience, so this time many fans did not want him to come back because of the success Licey was having this season ... [Rodriguez] did not want to make his debut in a large stadium, in fear of the fans' rejection.

I've been a fan of Henry since he was a rookie in the Dodgers organization. Henry is now in the best shape of his carreer and very muscular. His swing is shorter than before; he has improved his batting against left-handers.

In the playoffs he hit two HR in a game, one of them traveling a long distance and clearing a wall - it was lost in the lights. It could have landed in the second deck of the Yankee Stadium.
Jon Weisman (link)

Monday, February 09, 2004

 

Oh Henry! Returns

A very late but very great Winter League season enabled ex-Dodger Henry Rodriguez, who has only one major-league hit since 2000, to receive a non-roster invite to Spring Training from the Pirates last week.

Given the annual flux of the Pittsburgh roster, which also will take a chance on humbled Dodger washout Daryle Ward, this isn't a huge surprise. But there is an interesting story about it, courtesy of Carlos J. Lugo, a Dodger Thoughts reader who is a television broadcaster for the Estrellas de Oriente ballclub as well as the Dominican Winter League on Fox's cable networks.

Reporting on the DWL for Baseball Prospectus, Lugo wrote that Rodriguez ...

... was clearly overweight and out of shape and he couldn't even made the (Licey) team for the season opener, even though there are many spots available early in the season. Licey's manager Manny Acta acted very politely regarding Rodriguez, and refused to discard the possibility of him joining the club later, saying that he just need more time to get back in shape.

The season went on for Licey, and Rodriguez wasn't even mentioned in conversations regarding the team, and when the outfielder finally appeared at the end of the season, people thought it was just a good gesture from Acta and the Tigers' front office to let him play a few unimportant games. As expected, Rodriguez looked overmatched, hitting just .200/.273/.550 in 20 at-bats, and the line wasn't worse because he had a two-homer game at friendly Julian Javier Stadium.

When the playoffs started manager Acta surprised everybody when he named Rodriguez his everyday leftfielder, but at the end Acta was right because Rodriguez was useful in the playoffs, hitting three home runs, two of them in key games, and had an incredible Final Series hitting .579 with two home runs, eight runs batted in, a double and four walks. As expected, Henry was named the series MVP.

There's no doubt that Henry is in much better physical shape than two years ago, and according to him, his troublesome back is not bothering him for the first time in the last few years. He showed good power during the post-season with five home runs in 18 games played, and his pitch recognition and plate discipline during that time was the best I've seen in him.

Although banking hopes for a comeback on a couple of playoff series for Licey is a little dicey, with Rodriguez' birthday only 18 days before mine, I'm rooting for his attempt at a career renaissance. Look at me, rejuvenated as a sportswriter after a long absence - although admittedly without a six-figure salary or anything thereabouts.

Lugo also writes that Jose Offerman, born one year to the day after Rodriguez, "still has the same virtues of years ago - good plate discipline and solid contact - and he's hitting for a little more power now than in the past. Offerman is in very good physical shape, and if a team could live with his defensive shortcomings, he's not a bad gamble as a bench player."

Update: Offerman signed a minor-league contract Monday with the Minnesota Twins.

* * *

Coincidentally, I received an e-mail over the weekend from another Dominican Republic reader, Raul Tavares, who has been a fan of the team since the World Series title year of 1981 and follows the games on DirecTV.

Tavares describes himself as "a Dodger fan in heavy pain," over the Frank McCourt purchase for the team, but had an interesting encounter recently. He writes:

As you may know, the Dodgers have a training facility here that it's called Campos Las Palmas, which has developed such great players as Pedro Martinez, among others.

Well, yesterday was the final game of Caribbean World Series, in which my other beloved team, the Licey Tigers, beat Puerto Rico, 4-3. In that game, I had the opportunity to meet Mr. Ralph Avila, senior consultant for the Dodgers, and the best part was meeting Luchy Guerra, Assistant Director of Minor League Operations. We spent about three innings talking Dodgers baseball.

She told me that she hopes that the Fox-McCourt transfer would be less traumatic than the O'Malley-Fox. I told her that I cried watching the press conference. She also told me that GM Dan Evans had a meeting with his staff and told them not to worry about him.

McCourt certainly has some good soldiers under him - or at least, some people who want to keep their jobs. In any event, how nice for Tavares that he could have that lengthy chat with Dodger management.
Jon Weisman (link)

Saturday, February 07, 2004

 

Very Idle Speculation

Lonnie Wheeler of the Cincinnati Post wants Frank McCourt to acquire Ken Griffey, Jr., saying that both teams would be doing each other a favor.

Of course, Wheeler also hypothetically plucks Dodger prospects like fruit at the Farmer's Market - if it were that easy, the Dodgers would have all kinds of outfielders to pursue. (Although, who knows - with Dan Evans' future in doubt, anything could happen.)

Anyway, among other things, Wheeler doesn't seem to realize who Walter Alston - an Ohio native - was.

"The other thing is that it hasn't really worked out for Junior since he returned to his hometown four years ago," Wheeler writes, "but you can fix that in a flash. All you have to do is give him his old number back. He was the best player in the game when he wore 24 for the Mariners. When he got here, though, Tony Perez didn't want to unretire the old double-dozen, and the problem is that Junior is just not a 30 kind of guy, no matter what his old man wore. Looking at your roster, I see that the Dodgers don't have a 24. Perfect. It's a marriage made in Tinseltown."

You'd think it would have occured to Wheeler to see if the Dodgers' 24 was retired as well.
Jon Weisman (link)

 

Only If He Hits Righties Does He Hit Lefties

Ever have one of those moments where one of your lifelong assumptions is turned on its ear?

That happened to me Friday, at least on a baseball level.

I'm writing this still somewhat in a state of disbelief, but I wanted to share with you the discussion that's going on.

The inspiration for the discussion is ex-Dodger Eric Karros, whom Oakland signed to be a part-time first baseman. Rob Neyer wrote about the deal on ESPN.com. The justification for the signing is that, although Karros' numbers against right-handed batters are poor, he hits lefties very well, and is ideal for a platoon.

The numbers are there.

Karros vs. LHP, 2001-2003: 207 AB, .904 OPS
Karros vs. RHP, 2001-2003: 991 AB, .672 OPS

So, here's the revolution.

The best way to look at how a right-handed major league batter will perform against left-handed pitchers ... is to make sure you give heavy emphasis to his stats against right-handed pitchers.

I am really going to try to give you the shorthand version of this. For one thing, a carpal-tunnel like fatigue is taking over my typing fingers, and for another, I'm not looking to convince you in one shot. I'm content to let this simmer for a while.

Studies performed by Bill James and other sabermaticians - MGL on Baseball Primer is another notable source - indicate that over time, the ratio between a right-handed batter's OPS against righty and lefty pitchers is consistently 1.09 to 1.

In a given season, or even in given seasons, there will be aberrations. Because most pitchers are right-handed, players get relatively few at-bats against southpaws, thus skewing the sample sizes.

But the stats guys are trying to assure us that overtime, right-handed batters will regress to this Platoon Golden Mean.

Thus, while there's no denying that Karros enjoyed a dramatically better performance against lefties in recent years, the odds are that his platoon gap will revert to normal in coming years. And since he has more at-bats against righties, his stats against righties - as poor as they are - represent the norm.

So, if you're picking a hitter to go against a left-handed pitcher, you'd be better off picking a player who had proven success against righties than a player like Karros.*

Finding this hard to accept? I did. It's intuitive, for me at least, to assume the human frailties involved in picking up a piece of wood and swinging at small ball coming very fast would affect different players differently. The arm that the opposing pitcher uses to throw that ball is clearly a variable, so certainly, some batters would respond better to left-handed pitchers than others.

My instincts battled what I was reading all afternoon, with the result being that I pumped the guys on Baseball Primer with questions. You can read more some of their responses in this thread, but let me boil them down for you.

No one wants to demean my intuition, but the numbers just don't back it up. Over time, a right-handed batter with a .500 OPS against righties will do 109 percent better against lefties (.545), and a right-handed batter with a 1.000 OPS against righties will do 109 percent better against lefties (1.090). The fact that the first guy might be coming off a year in which he posted a .800 OPS against lefties, and the second guy might have gone .700 against lefties - to borrow from Meatballs, it just doesn't matter! At least as far as predicting the future is concerned.

Digesting that? Here's something else: It doesn't work the same in reverse. If you want to predict the performance of a left-handed major league batter against right-handed pitching, you can rely a little more confidently on his personal platoon split - if you are looking at several seasons worth of at-bats. To make a prediction based on one to three seasons of at-bats, instead of multiplying the player's overall OPS by 1.09, multiply it by 1.20 - the league average platoon ratio for lefty batters.

Steve Treder's explanation on this matter was particularly helpful (and note that it applies to major leaguers only).

"The best explanation is this: there are many fewer LHP than RHP," Treder wrote on Baseball Primer. "So while all RHB must learn to hit RHP reasonably well even to make the majors, it is possible for a LHB who hits RHP well to make the majors even though he never masters hitting against LHP. The demographics of handedness allow many LHB to practically never face LHP."

"Here's another way to think of it: there are RHB who can't hit RHP, but they never make the majors," he added. "LHB who can't hit LHP often do make the majors. So RHB and LHB at the major league level aren't exactly comparable populations."

I really find this extraordinary. Think about the impact this revelation, if one accepts it, would have on your player personnel decisions - both as you plan a season, and as you plan for a pinch-hitter to face a southpaw in the bottom of the ninth. Where you might have picked the Karros-like hitter with the gaudy platoon split, you now have more reason to want with the guy whose past numbers against lefties are a little softer, but whose numbers overall are stronger.

Counter-arguments to this theory may well rise, and we should keep an eye on them. But when this kind of evidence is presented, even if it counters my way of thinking for 20 years or more, I have to take notice.

*MGL adds, in reading my first draft of this post:

"What you should encourage people to do if they want to predict how a RHB will perform versus a RHP or a LHB is to use his overall stats and do the appropriate adjustments (for a RHB who faces 65% righties and 35% lefties, multiply his overall OPS by 1.05 to predict his OPS v. lefties and divide by 1.03 to predict their OPS v. righties)."
Jon Weisman (link)

Friday, February 06, 2004

 

Murph, Jill, Nick and 'The Earnest Guy'

I promise to getting back to talking about ballplayers soon. But I'm fascinated by Bob Timmermann's e-mail to me, revealing the complete lyrics to "It's a Beautiful Day for a Ballgame."

Let's go! Batter up!
We're taking the afternoon off!
It's a beautiful day for a ballgame
For a ballgame today!

The fans are out to get a ticket or two
From Walla Walla, Washington to Kalamazoo!

It's a beautiful day for a home run,
But even a triple's OK!

We're going to cheer
And boo
Or raise a hullabaloo
At the ballgame today!

Batter Up!
Strike one!
Hey, the game has just begun
And the home team's out to win!

There he swings!
STRIKE TWO!
At the pitcher's dipsy-doo
See his fastball pop right in!

This is it!
STRIKE THREE!
The fans are tearing up the chairs
But what the heck who cares?

It's a beautiful day for a ballgame
For a ballgame today!
If you and I are out of dollars and cents
Oh honey we can always share a little hole in the fence!

It's a beautiful day for the ladies,
So throw all your dishes away

We're going to cheer
And boo
Or raise a hullabaloo
At the ballgame today!
At the ballgame, the wonderful ballgame
Today!

Timmermann, who raised an e-mail eyebrow at the verse about the ladies and their dishes, also adds:

Some of those verses were never played to the best of my knowledge.

Back in the days when the Dodgers were on KFI, they switched around the verses. Or sometimes they would play more of the song if they had time to kill.

Back in the days when a player hit a home run and Vin would say, "For that home run, Union 76 is proud to donate two $20 books of Union Oil Auto Scrip to the Boys Club of Downey in the name of Willie Crawford ..."

And the only games televised were from San Francisco or Sunday afternoon road games.

Dang I'm old.

Not much older than me. Timmermann's reminiscences immediately brought to mind the Union (not Unocal) 76 commercials during Dodger telecasts of the 1970s. They took place at a fictional gas station. There was father figure Murph, ingenue Jill, trouble-finds-him Nick, and the "earnest guy," whose name Timmermann and I forget but who was played by future CHiPs hot-rodder Larry Wilcox.

You guys remember those? I do seem to remember seeing the Jill actress get some roles beyond pumping gas - if anyone knows her name, or Nick's, or Earnest Guy's character name, or has any other recollections of these commercials, feel free to share.
Jon Weisman (link)

 

More Memories I Need to Share

Three voices I can hear in my head, clear as day.

My late paternal grandfather, saying, "How are ya, champ?"

My late maternal grandfather, teaching us French by saying, "Parlez-vous francais? Chevrolet cou-pay?"

Vin Scully, doing a Farmer John commercial voiceover and saying, "Braunschweiger."

Jon Weisman (link)