Dodger Thoughts

Saturday, September 06, 2003

 

Ward Bonded

Ken Gurnick at MLB.com gets to be the first to publish that the Dodgers have designated for assignment (i.e., jettisoned) Scott Mullen, Larry Barnes ... and Daryle Ward.

Talk about an acquisition gone sour. Talk about putting the dis in disenchanted.

Ward had one extra-base hit and three walks in 52 games for the Dodgers. His final numbers: .183 batting average, .211 on-base percentage, .193 slugging percentage, .403 OPS.

And yet, don't be surprised if some team goes after Ward for the stretch run ...

* * *

He may have only 35 plate appearances this season, but man, Todd Hundley has hit two huge home runs for the Dodgers - both as a pinch-hitter.

His three-run shot Friday night was the turning point of the Dodgers' remarkable victory, especially in light of my Friday morning entry highlighting how hopeless Los Angeles had played on the road against divisional opponents. (The one game I picked as pivotal this season, the Dodgers staged one of their most stunning rallies.)

Hundley also hit a game-winning, three-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning in a 4-3 victory over San Diego on April 17.

* * *

Faithful reader Louis writes in response to Friday's somewhat disgruntled entry:

You're right, there just ain't much mystery about this year's team. Hasn't been since the All-Star break. But there's finally some light at the end of this tunnel of mediocrity, as you wrote about a couple of days ago (here and here). We didn't trade any top prospects for the quick fix - as the Bill Plaschkes and T.J. Simers of the world practically the begged the team to do. While Evans didn't truly recognize the reality of this season (mediocre team with little chance of reaching the playoffs), he at least kept our existing prospects. As I've said before, if he had recognized what this team was and what it wasn't, he could've been a big-time seller at the deadline and gotten some serious value for any number of our pitchers - thereby improving our organizational depth. But I can understand why he didn't do that; there are business and public relations realities to be considered here. And with each passing year the mistakes of the past have less and less influence over the future. We'll have more payroll flexibility this off-season and more (presumably) the next.

I think overall the franchise is finally headed in the right direction and I have a growing sense of optimism about the future. There are a few black clouds on the horizon - the biggest being the ownership situation - but overall I think we're ok. Now if Dan Evans gets fired who knows what happens....

And, at the very least, be thankful that you're not a Reds, Pirates or Tigers fan. That's true misery.

Louis

* * *


Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent


Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 6
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
89 ... Philadelphia (63.8 percent)
87 ... Florida (21.0 percent)
86 ... Houston (3.4 percent)
84 ... Los Angeles (4.8 percent)
84 ... St. Louis (1.4 percent)
84 ... Arizona (2.1 percent)
82 ... Montreal (0.6 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)
Jon Weisman (link)

Friday, September 05, 2003

 

Gagne Is Not the MVP

I've been so disenchanted with the Dodger columns in the Times this week that when I saw another I disagreed with - the worst of the bunch - I decided I had to just let it go.

Fortunately, Idiots Write About Sports countered Bill Plashcke's "Gagne for MVP" column" today most effectively in a posting entitled, What's French for 'Are You Freakin' Nuts?'

They, like me, were particularly stunned that anyone could consider Gagne, in all his greatness, more of a daily savior than Barry Bonds.

Gagne's own logic that relievers are better contenders for the MVP than the Cy Young is every bit as flawed.

You know I think the world of Gagne, but please, can we maintain just a little perspective?

(Thanks to Baseball Musings for the refer.)
Jon Weisman (link)

 

Ennui, Angst and Hope

I don't know, guys.

It's September. The Dodgers are three games out. John Wiebe is banging out entries the size of the Mojave. L.A. Observed is promoting this site, admittedly to those "still clinging to interest."

I don't really know what to tell them.

When the games start, I'm into it. But in the quiet morning, I feel there may be no mystery left to the 2003 Dodgers.

They can pitch, assuming they stay healthy.

But they can't hit.

And they can't beat the teams in their own division.

I'm not depressed - I'm just resigned. Won't you be shocked if the Dodgers pull out a playoff bid?

Fourteen road games in the National League West remain for the Dodgers. I'm not big on singling out games as pivotal, but I think it would make all the difference in the world if the Dodgers could show tonight that they can win a road game against a divisional rival.

They are 6-18 on the road within the division. They're the Detroit Tigers. In all other games, the team is 66-48 - a .579 winning percentage.

In one-run road games within the division, the Dodgers are 2-9!

In road games within the division decided by two runs or less, the Dodgers are 2-11!!

In road games within the division decided by three runs or less, the Dodgers are 2-13!!!

In road games within the division decided by four runs or less, the Dodgers are 2-14!!!!

Not to mention the fact that in road games within the division in which the Dodgers have scored three runs or less, the Dodgers are 1-13!!!!

There's your unsolved mystery. Page M. Poirot. Bring this villainy to its knees, and you might just rescue September for the Dodgers from the evil Dr. Ennui and Mr. Angst.

* * *

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent


Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 5
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
88 ... Philadelphia (56.9 percent)
87 ... Florida (30.2 percent)
86 ... Houston (2.8 percent)
85 ... St. Louis (2.1 percent)
84 ... Los Angeles (3.5 percent)
83 ... Arizona (1.4 percent)
82 ... Montreal (0.4 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)
Jon Weisman (link)

Thursday, September 04, 2003

 
Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent


Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 4
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
88 ... Philadelphia (55.2 percent)
87 ... Florida (28.5 percent)
86 ... Houston (3.4 percent)
85 ... St. Louis (3.1 percent)
84 ... Los Angeles (4.3 percent)
82 ... Arizona (1.3 percent)
82 ... Montreal (0.6 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)
Jon Weisman (link)

Wednesday, September 03, 2003

 

Biting the Bullet

My e-mail to Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus:

Regarding the revelations about Shawn Green ... would in-season surgery have been a viable option for him? What might the recovery period have been?

Will's response:

Viable? Sure, but he would have missed two months or more. Better to do it the day the season ends or eliminated or whatever. He should recover in time for spring training.

If Green had undergone surgery and missed the first half of the season, up to the All-Star break, this is what the Dodgers would have had to replace:

93 games
93 hits
51 singles
31 doubles
1 triple
10 home runs
31 walks
187 total bases on hits plus walks
2.0 bases per game

By comparison, here is what the Dodgers would have hoped to have for the second half of the season - something on pace with Green's stats from 2002:

158 games
166 hits
92 singles
31 doubles
1 triple
42 home runs
93 walks
376 total bases on hits plus walks
2.4 bases per game

Who would have replaced Green during his rehab? A combination of this guy and that guy and even him over there. All of whom would presumably do at least as well as this:

133 games
113 hits
89 singles
19 doubles
5 triples
0 home runs
22 walks
164 total bases on hits plus walks
1.2 bases per game

Those are Cesar Izturis' numbers - essentially, the minimum output for an everyday player.

So here we go. Would it have been worth dropping below the two-base-per-game level in right field for the first half of the season in the hopes of rising above it in the second half?

Would it have been worth giving up dollars and prospects in order to add an extra outfielder that would have matched Green's output?

Realize that it must have taken some time in 2003 for the Dodgers to realize how good their pitching was going to be, and how much the injury was going to sap Green's power. Around the time they were realizing this, Darren Dreifort went down. Soon after, Kevin Brown was working through his own injury. Brian Jordan and Fred McGriff followed.

With those injuries, the Dodgers could have declared 2003 a lost cause.

Or, they could have pulled out the stops to try to salvage the season.

Instead, their approach was, do the best we can in 2003 without going over $117 million or sacrificing the future.

If the team doesn't improve to the point of becoming a perennial World Series contender by 2005, this approach will have been a mistake.

But my hunch is that the team is working right now toward closing the door on a sad chapter in its history, that it is correct in finally instilling some discipline, in biting the bullet. It's a bullet that's hard to swallow amid a steady 15-year diet of them, but it really may help the Dodgers' long-term fitness.

Again, the Times is coming down hard on Dan Evans, but it doesn't seem like you'll ever catch that paper's writers thinking beyond the present. Perhaps Evans deserves some credit for risking his own job security to restore the health of the Dodger franchise.

* * *

Aaron Gleeman put together a combined Los Angeles-Detroit All-Nothing Squad today, writing, "I could say a lot of things to try to describe just how awful that team would be offensively, but I think the best and easiest way to put it is to ask exactly how awful a team would have to be in order for Cesar ".246/.278/.309" Izturis to not be bad enough to crack the starting lineup?"

John Wiebe has really kicked into another gear over the past month at John's Dodger Blog. If you haven't been reading him, you should be. If you have been reading him, I can only hope you're still reading me.

Meanwhile, Robert Tagorda has got his chart game going on. This week, he has drawn attention to the frequency of the Dodger September swoon and is tracking the stats for this month to see if the swoons are returning to Capistrano.

And finally, are you all caught up on the saga of ex-Dodger Tyler Houston? If not, check out the View from the 700 Level.

* * *

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent


Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 3
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
88 ... Philadelphia (50.4 percent)
86 ... Florida (26.7 percent)
86 ... St. Louis (3.6 percent)
85 ... Houston (3.4 percent)
84 ... Los Angeles (7.9 percent)
83 ... Arizona (3.1 percent)
82 ... Montreal (1.2 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

Baseball Prospectus predicts that the Dodgers will play only .489 ball the rest of the season - worse than any other wild-card contender. Los Angeles has the second-toughest remaining schedule of the contenders, behind only Florida.

Jon Weisman (link)

Tuesday, September 02, 2003

 

The Cold Shoulder

Unlike Shawn Green, I will make excuses. I'm no hero. Issues with the new house seem to be taking every waking moment and many sleeping ones. So I don't have the power in my Dodger Thoughts swing I'd like to have right now.

Belatedly, then ...

Jason Reid of the Times today broke what might be the biggest story of the Dodgers' season - that their top offensive player, Green, has been injured since Spring Training.

My immediate response to this was to wonder whether in-season surgery for Green would have been a better solution than having him struggle through the injury. I wrote Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus - we'll see if his response adds some perspective.

The other fragment of A Shoulder's Story that I find disconcerting is that for most of the season, Dodger officials did imply that they were waiting - expectantly - for Green to resume his usual production. This now seems about as fair as asking a Seinfeld actor to headline a successful sitcom.

Meanwhile, the bigger issue for Reid's teammate, Ross Newhan, was that the Dodgers' knowledge of the injury increases the sin value of the team not pursuing offensive help.

Newhan writes:

...there has been no excuse for management's decision to hide behind the luxury cap at a time when so much of the offense hinged on Green duplicating his production of the last two years, when Brian Jordan went down for the season and Fred McGriff disappeared for a large part of it, and when it became obvious that Kevin Brown was healthy and the high-salaried pitching staff was good enough to carry the Dodgers to the playoffs if the lineup received a shot of substantive help.

I disagree. In fact, there has been an excuse for management's decision. Whether you think it's a good excuse is subject to debate, but you can certainly make the case that salary excess (as well as disregard for protecting the farm system) was the curse of the Dodgers, and that someone needed to draw the line - the sooner the better.

Is this tough love for a fan base (and apparently, a media base) starving for postseason action? Definitely. But I appreciate that it shows signs of wanting to stop the Fox/Kevin Malone madness - a madness that all starving fans would decry.

Dan Evans had an agenda - win as many games as possible within a $117 million budget. Newhan believes that this is a phony agenda - that a dollar well-spent is a dollar well-spent, budget be damned.

Honestly, maybe Newhan is right. But I'm not sure. At a minimum, Newhan seems to only be looking at 2003, without any consideration for the future.

The Dodgers may end up missing a window to the playoffs this season, then perhaps watch Kevin Brown and the other pitchers struggle next season. But each year in which the Dodgers show restraint increases their flexibility and potential for the following season. And there really is something to be said for that.

The Dodgers still don't seem to get that on-base percentage matters, or that drafting high schoolers is risky, but other than that, I feel good about the direction of the franchise. Barring a major regime change, I doubt that the team will still be fasting offensively in seasons to come.

* * *

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent


Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 2
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
88 ... Philadelphia (47.3 percent)
87 ... Florida (31.6 percent)
86 ... Houston (3.5 percent)
85 ... St. Louis (3.5 percent)
84 ... Los Angeles (4.7 percent)
84 ... Arizona (4.3 percent)
83 ... Montreal (1.4 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

I'm increasingly aware that the Dodgers' difficult September schedule - facing Houston plus NL West teams that they have struggled with all season - would render a wild-card run miraculous.
Jon Weisman (link)

Monday, September 01, 2003

 
Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent


Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 1
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
88 ... Philadelphia (48.6 percent)
86 ... Florida (25.7 percent)
85 ... Chicago (3.1 percent)
85 ... Houston (2.8 percent)
84 ... Los Angeles (7.9 percent)
84 ... Arizona (6.6 percent)
83 ... Montreal (2.3 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)
Jon Weisman (link)

Sunday, August 31, 2003

 
Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent


Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of August 31
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
87 ... Philadelphia (42.9 percent)
86 ... Florida (22.1 percent)
86 ... Houston (4.4 percent)
86 ... St. Louis (4.4 percent)
85 ... Arizona (10.8 percent)
84 ... Los Angeles (6.8 percent)
83 ... Montreal (3.9 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)
Jon Weisman (link)