Dodger Thoughts

Saturday, November 29, 2003

 

Presenting the National League West

Curt Schilling's departure from Arizona to Boston has altered the landscape of the National League West. But if you're like me, with so many departures from NL West teams already having occurred, that landscape is starting to go Monet on you.

To get things back into focus, please find below a grid of what the Opening Day rosters of the NL West teams look like today. I plan to update this grid as much as possible, so that you rosterfarians always have an overview of the division.

Because these rosters are current, they include players who might not be tendered 2004 contracts. So for now, Adrian Beltre is still a Dodger.

However, the rosters do not include any free agents, even those who might be likely to sign. So for now, Wilson Alvarez is not a Dodger.

As a result, you are going to see bare patches in the grass. The Dodgers currently have Mike Kinkade as their starting first baseman and Jolbert Cabrera in left field. But they're not alone in having problems to solve. San Francisco's current starting lineup includes Pedro Feliz, Neifi Perez and Todd Linden. It's possible they could open 2004 with all three filling those positions, but I'm sure most of the Bay Area hopes not.

You will also see some debatable choices. Mostly, those come in the lower echelons of the roster, where it's a struggle to fill out the teams. But you might also question things like Phil Nevin in left field for the Padres or Darren Dreifort on the mound for the Dodgers. Neither may be in the physical condition to play those positions. Again, this is my best guess of how things would look if this were April, but please write if you think someone is in the wrong place, or I'm stretching credibility, or if I left someone out.

My first comment: The division's pitching staffs - all the way down to the 11th men - seem closer to Opening Day condition than the rest of the rosters. Barry Bonds is the only reason that this isn't a five-team race as we speak. Thrust him aside, and I think San Diego has as good a lineup as any team. As for the reserves: Luke Allen is No. 3 on the Rockies' bench. Wilkin Ruan is No. 2 on the Dodgers. From Terrence Long to Cody Ransom, it is not pretty. Everyone has work to do.

Update: Hours after I finished this, a report emerged that the Diamondbacks had traded Lyle Overbay, Junior Spivey, Chris Capuano and Craig Counsell for Richie Sexson. I will make the appropriate changes forthwith. My sense is that Arizona will enjoy Sexson, but that they may have undervalued Overbay, who had an on-base percentage of .365 in 2003.

National League West Rosters - Updated November 29, 2003

Position	Arizona	Colorado	Los Angeles	San Diego	San Francisco
C	Barajas	Johnson	Lo Duca	Hernandez	Pierzynski
1B	Overbay	Helton	Kinkade	Klesko	Feliz
2B	Spivey	Ozuna	Cora	Loretta	Durham
SS	Cintron	Uribe	Izturis	Vasquez	Perez
3B	Hillenbrand	Bellhorn	Beltre	Burroughs	Alfonzo
LF	L. Gonzalez	Payton	Cabrera	Nevin	Bonds
CF	Finley	Wilson	Roberts	Giles	Grissom
RF	Bautista	Walker	Green	Nady	Linden
Bench	Moeller	Reyes	Ross	Ojeda	Torrealba
Bench	Hammock	Atkins	Ruan	Long	Ransom
Bench	Counsell	Allen	Romano	Buchanan	Torcato
Bench	Kata	Closser	Hundley	Hansen	Castillo
Bench	Tracy	Barnes	Thurston	Mendez	Valderrama
Bench	McCracken	Freeman	Chen	Greene	Niekro
P	Johnson	Jennings	Brown	Lawrence	Schmidt
P	Webb	Chacon	Nomo	Peavy	Reuter
P	Dessens	Stark	Perez	Eaton	Foppert
P	Fossum	Elarton	Ishii	Jarvis	Williams
P	Patterson	Cook	Dreifort	Howard	Brower
P	Villarreal	Fuentes	Gagne	Hoffman	Nen
P	Randolph	Lopez	Mota	Matthews	Eyre
P	Koplove	Speier	Shuey	Witasick	Rodriguez
P	Good	Neagle	Martin	Linebrink	Zerbe
P	Capuano	Tsao	Jackson	Villafuerte	Correia
P	E. Gonzalez	Bernero	Colyer	Bynum	Herges

By the way, Ross Newhan of the Times was all over how the Schilling trade would make it hard for the Dodgers to acquire Richie Sexson. You'd think he would have had at least some corresponding comment about how nice it is for the Dodgers that Schilling is out of their hair.

Jon Weisman (link)

 

Tested Already

Hours after I finished this, a report emerged that the Diamondbacks had traded Lyle Overbay, Junior Spivey, Chris Capuano and Craig Counsell for Richie Sexson. I'm making the adjustments now, though the report says the players must pass their physicals first.

My sense is that Arizona will enjoy Sexson, but that they may have undervalued Overbay, who had an on-base percentage of .365 in 2003, and they now need a full-time answer at second base. Their bench is about as barren as the rest of the division's, but they can probably solve that cheaply.

Update (December 1): The Sexson deal is official, according to ESPN.com. The Diamondbacks also trade Chad Moeller and Jorge de la Rosa. The Brewers include reliever Shane Nance in their give-ups.

Also updating to reflect that Giants' pitcher Jesse Foppert is out for 2004 with Tommy John surgery. (Thanks to Bill Simms for the reminder.)

National League West Rosters - Updated December 1, 2003

Position	Arizona	Colorado	Los Angeles	San Diego	San Francisco
C	Barajas	Johnson	Lo Duca	Hernandez	Pierzynski
1B	Sexson	Helton	Kinkade	Klesko	Feliz
2B	Kata	Ozuna	Cora	Loretta	Durham
SS	Cintron	Uribe	Izturis	Vasquez	Perez
3B	Hillenbrand	Bellhorn	Beltre	Burroughs	Alfonzo
LF	L. Gonzalez	Payton	Cabrera	Nevin	Bonds
CF	Finley	Wilson	Roberts	Giles	Grissom
RF	Bautista	Walker	Green	Nady	Linden
Bench	McCracken	Reyes	Ross	Ojeda	Torrealba
Bench	Hammock	Atkins	Ruan	Long	Ransom
Bench	Terrero	Allen	Romano	Buchanan	Torcato
Bench	Olson	Closser	Hundley	Hansen	Castillo
Bench	Tracy	Barnes	Thurston	Mendez	Valderrama
Bench	Hairston	Freeman	Chen	Greene	Niekro
P	Johnson	Jennings	Brown	Lawrence	Schmidt
P	Webb	Chacon	Nomo	Peavy	Reuter
P	Dessens	Stark	Perez	Eaton	Jensen
P	Fossum	Elarton	Ishii	Jarvis	Williams
P	Patterson	Cook	Dreifort	Howard	Brower
P	Villarreal	Fuentes	Gagne	Hoffman	Nen
P	Randolph	Lopez	Mota	Matthews	Eyre
P	Koplove	Speier	Shuey	Witasick	Rodriguez
P	Good	Neagle	Martin	Linebrink	Zerbe
P	Lyon	Tsao	Jackson	Villafuerte	Correia
P	Orosco	Bernero	Colyer	Bynum	Herges

All right, Dodgers. Sexson and Derrek Lee are spoken for. Maybe that's a blessing in disguise. Left field was Job 1, anyway.

Jon Weisman (link)

Thursday, November 27, 2003

 
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

It's a family-oriented weekend for the Weismans, but I'll be back soon.
Jon Weisman (link)

Tuesday, November 25, 2003

 
Farewell, Warren Spahn - a pitcher truly underappreciated in this era ...

Odalis Out of the Park

As for another lefty ...

In 2003, compared to the previous season, Odalis Perez improved his strikeouts per nine innings by almost 10 percent.

In 2003, Perez improved his ratio of groundouts to flyouts by 46 percent, to 1.99 - seventh-best in the league.

And yet, Perez' ERA did not go down in 2003. It rose 51 percent, from 3.00 to 4.52.

What happened?

Perez walked a few more batters, but not many more. His walks per nine innings increased 45 percent in 2003, from 1.54 to 2.23, but that only amounts to an extra walk every other start.

Despite striking out more batters, and keeping the ball on the ground more often, Perez simply got hit harder. The batting average of opponents against Perez rose from .226 to .267 in 2003. Moreover, the slugging percentage of opponents rose from .347 to .442.

Some of that rise may be attributed to luck - balls eluding even the splendid Dodger infield. But you can't ignore the balls that only the fans in the outfield bleachers could catch.

Perez allowed a home run every 6 2/3 innings in 2003, compared to one every 10 2/3 innings in 2002. That's not just a flesh wound.

Perez's ERA on home runs allowed, on just the guys who hit the ball out of the park, was 1.35 in 2003. In 2002, it was 0.84. In other words, the increased home runs allowed account for more than half a run per game by themselves.

Further, with runners on base, Perez' home runs allowed nearly doubled - from eight in 2002 (283 at-bats plus walks) to 15 in 2003 (290 at-bats plus walks).

Perez is in his prime - he turns 27 in June. He may not be as good as he was in 2002, and the Dodgers may need to trade him to get some hitting help, but he should not be undervalued. He actually improved as a pitcher in some ways in 2003 from his All-Star season in 2002. If he can maintain or continue that improvement, and solve the home run crisis, you're once again looking at a potential All-Star.
Jon Weisman (link)