Dodger Thoughts

Thursday, September 18, 2003

 

It Looks Over, But ...

Florida beats Philadelphia today.
Los Angeles beats Arizona today.

Atlanta sweeps Florida this weekend.
Los Angeles sweeps San Francisco this weekend.
Philadelphia takes, say, two of three from Pittsburgh.

National League Wild Card Standings on Monday morning:

85-70 Florida
84-70 Los Angeles
85-71 Philadelphia

The Dodgers can pull even with Florida in the loss column with a week to go in the season. So they certainly can do it by season's end September 28, even without the above scenario taking place.

It's not that the Dodgers might not lose every game they play for the rest of the week. However, as much as it may frustrate those who are tired of the struggle, the Dodger playoff pursuit is not over.

I'm not saying this to be a rally monkey. I'm saying it only because it's true.

The Dodgers lost their past two games, but to two of the best pitchers in the National League. They probably will not face more talented pitchers the rest of the regular season, with the possible exception of Jason Schmidt on September 27.

The main caveat I will put in is that if the Dodgers are going to win this thing, they will probably have to take the wild card lead before their season-ending series in San Francisco. With the Marlins finishing at home with three games against New York, they aren't likely to let a lead slip away on the final weekend.

Forget about the Cubs - as I've been saying, the schedule should allow them to take the NL Central easily.

* * *
Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 2.5 percent
September 17: 5.2 percent
September 16: 8.7 percent
September 15: 8.9 percent
September 14: 6.1 percent
September 12: 3.8 percent
September 11: 7.1 percent
September 10: 9.7 percent
September 9: 9.4 percent
September 8: 5.4 percent
September 7: 5.3 percent
September 6: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent


Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 17
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
89 ... Philadelphia (31.0 percent)
90 ... Florida (59.6 percent)
88 ... Chicago (4.2 percent)
86 ... Los Angeles (2.5 percent)
85 ... Arizona (0.2 percent)
83 ... St. Louis (0.0 percent)
82 ... Montreal (0.0 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)
Jon Weisman (link)

Wednesday, September 17, 2003

 

Burnitz Ward

Jeromy Burnitz has reached six times in September: a walk, three singles and two home runs. His OPS is .401.


Jon Weisman (link)

 

Mounds of Tension

Playing close games in a close race, every pitching matchup matters for the Dodgers. Here's a look at what they face the rest of this week, as they fight increasingly long odds that Florida, Philadelphia, Houston and Chicago will lose enough games to leave the wild card in the deck.

Tonight: With a spellbinding performance for the Dodgers last week, Edwin Jackson showed us last week how valuable a weapon unfamiliarity can be for a pitcher. Jackson will have to show he can be just as good the second time around, when he makes another emergency start against Arizona, this time in place of Odalis Perez.

Jackson will face Rookie-of-the-Year candidate Brandon Webb, who stood to be the losing pitcher in his first career game against the Dodgers last week, before the Diamondbacks posted their five-run eighth-inning rally.

Stakes are high - so high, in fact, that it's my opinion that if Jackson pitches well this very evening, he will ensure that Dan Evans returns as Dodger general manager in 2004. Amid all the speculation that Evans needed to transact the Dodgers into the playoffs this season, if Jackson can serve as evidence that Evans has a long-term plan, both the media and ownership will concede that Evans deserves more time to fruitionize that plan.

Of course, it won't hurt that a winning performance by Jackson will kindle Dodger playoff hopes.

Thursday: Wilson Alvarez faces Miguel Batista. Batista is the pitcher who effectively ended the Dodgers' hopes for the playoffs in 2001 by allowing only one earned run over 14 innings in consecutive late-September starts. Since 2000, Batista
has an ERA of 3.21 at Dodger Stadium.

Alvarez leads the National League in ERA since the All-Star Break (1.30 ERA in 55 1/3 innings). We're all waiting for the other shoe to drop on Alvarez, but unless his complete game Friday depleted Alvarez's tank, odds point to that Nike thumping his head on the road next week, if at all.

After facing a verifiable nemesis in Curt Schilling on Tuesday, those are two more tough pitching matchups for the Dodgers. When San Francisco comes to town, though, it could be a different story.

The Dodgers couldn't duck Schilling this week, but they will catch a break this weekend. Jason Schmidt of the Giants won't face the Dodgers, because his turn in the San Francisco rotation is tonight against San Diego. Schmidt is 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA against Los Angeles this year.

Friday: The Giants series is scheduled to kick off with Kevin Correia - a rookie, admittedly one who has a 2.43 ERA in 29 2/3 innings. Correia is set to face Kevin Brown.

Saturday: An injury-plagued Kirk Reuter follows - he has a 4.83 ERA and has not completed seven innings since June 1 - against Hideo Nomo.

Sunday: Jerome Williams, another rookie having a fine season with a 3.30 ERA, probably will face Kazuhisa Ishii. Like Correia, Williams has not yet faced the Dodgers in his career.

The final week: For many reasons, it doesn't make sense to look beyond this week at the pitching matchups. But one can't resist wondering whether the Dodgers might catch a break in its season-ending series with San Francisco, if the Giants decide that Schmidt should only get a few innings of work at most so that he is fresh for the playoffs.

Meanwhile, everyone's talking about Florida and Philadelphia, but take a look at the remaining NL schedule and tell me if you don't think the wild card won't be Houston or Chicago.

* * *

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 5.2 percent
September 16: 8.7 percent
September 15: 8.9 percent
September 14: 6.1 percent
September 12: 3.8 percent
September 11: 7.1 percent
September 10: 9.7 percent
September 9: 9.4 percent
September 8: 5.4 percent
September 7: 5.3 percent
September 6: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent


Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 17
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
89 ... Philadelphia (49.0 percent)
89 ... Florida (40.2 percent)
88 ... Chicago (3.6 percent)
87 ... Los Angeles (5.2 percent)
84 ... Arizona (0.1 percent)
83 ... St. Louis (0.0 percent)
82 ... Montreal (0.0 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

Baseball Prospectus has added a disappointing disclaimer: "Because this analysis does not take into account head-to-head matchups, it may be less reliable from this point in the season onward."


Jon Weisman (link)

Tuesday, September 16, 2003

 
* * *

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 8.7 percent
September 15: 8.9 percent
September 14: 6.1 percent
September 12: 3.8 percent
September 11: 7.1 percent
September 10: 9.7 percent
September 9: 9.4 percent
September 8: 5.4 percent
September 7: 5.3 percent
September 6: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent


Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 16
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
90 ... Florida (54.9 percent)
89 ... Philadelphia (32.7 percent)
87 ... Los Angeles (8.7 percent)
87 ... Chicago (2.2 percent)
84 ... Arizona (0.1 percent)
83 ... St. Louis (0.3 percent)
81 ... Montreal (0.0 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

Jon Weisman (link)

 

More Other People's Words

This next one isn't a letter, but it certainly fits in the rubric of the headline above. David Pinto at Baseball Musings is "flabbergasted" by the stats of tonight's Dodger starter, Kazuhisa Ishii, against tonight's Dodger opponent, Arizona.

The first thing I saw was that Ishii had a career record against the DBacks of 3-0 with a 1.22 ERA. But then I noticed the context. He's pitched 37 innings against the DBacks, and has walked 24 men! That's almost six per nine innings. How does that jibe with a 1.22 ERA?

...None of the 24 batters Ishii has walked has come around to score! The Diamondbacks have not been able to execute against Ishii, going 0 for 18 with runners in scoring position against him with eight walks.

It's probably all luck, but it will be fun to keep an eye on this game tonight to see if it continues.

I myself have long had my own brush with confusion over Ishii's success despite walking so many. I analyzed it back in May, when I discovered that against Ishii, opponents were:

• batting only .213 overall
  
• slugging only .281 overall
  
• batting only .140 with runners in scoring position
  
• slugging only .186 with runners in scoring position

Those Ishii opponent numbers today?

• batting only .225 overall
  
• slugging only .352 overall
  
• batting only .156 with runners in scoring position
  
• slugging only .211 with runners in scoring position

As you can see, opponents have stepped it up a bit, but Ishii is still allowing hardly any hits at all with runners in scoring position.

I also wrote that in 2002, Ishii allowed only two home runs before May 31 - same as in 2003. In 2002, however, while his walks remained constant, Ishii allowed 18 home runs after May 31 (and until his season-ending injury in September 8). This season, he has allowed 11.

Ishii and Hideo Nomo are sixth and fourth in the league in walks allowed. But they are also highly ranked in lowest slugging percentage allowed. They simply do not appear to be giving into hitters, and hitters by and large have not been able to make them pay. Essentially, they're playing a game of chicken with the batters and winning.
Jon Weisman (link)

 

Other People's Words

As the morning greets me with some computer problems and nothing more profound than Wilson Alvarez's 0.66 home ERA (three earned runs in 40 2/3 innings), here are some letters:

* * *

First, Louis writes in response to my Monday post about Adrian Beltre.

Interesting post on Beltre....I was asking myself the same question while watching Friday's game. It doesn't seem like he's changed his approach at the plate very much. He isn't going the other way a whole lot, and the walk statisitic you posted shows he certainly isn't any more patient and selective at the plate in the 2nd half. He may be improving his ability to hit bad pitches, but to me that's not a good thing (although, setting aside the obvious criticisms/downside to his approach at the plate, it DOES take a lot of talent to be able to pull a breaking ball that is almost in the dirt into the left field bleachers, as I've seen him do several times).

That's why I think this offseason brings some difficult questions and answers about Beltre. Yes, his 2nd half has been excellent, and his end-of-the-season numbers will look OK, but do you, as the Dodgers, commit to a guy who's mental approach to hitting is so bad? And what about the fact that this approach hasn't really shown any significant signs of improvement after 5 seasons? Doesn't that have to seriously factor in to Evans' statistical projections?

In short I think Beltre will forever be a self-limiting player; tantalizing physical talent handcuffed by a lack of discipline at the plate. It's like the (typical?) girl who goes out with the "bad boy", thinking that she can change him. He says he'll call, he says he'll change, he says he'll be faithful, he says he'll get a job. It never works. I just hope that Adrian Beltre isn't the bad boy here and the Dodgers aren't those women (picture woman waiting by phone for the call that never comes and the Dodgers at the all-star break in 2004 looking at a 3rd baseman hitting .215).

My reply?

I think the decision on Beltre will be made not in a vaccum, but in context with other player moves. I could see scenarios where the Dodgers decide they've had enough, and others where they can afford to give Beltre one more shot. Keep in mind that third base is a weak position throughout the majors right now.

There are differing schools of thought as to whether plate discipline can be taught. Sammy Sosa learned it; Raul Mondesi didn't. Assuming the Dodgers are smart enough to care, they have to figure out which school applies to Beltre.

Let's see what happens over the next two weeks...

* * *

Meanwhile, Dodger Thoughts' Maine Dodger fan, Kent Whitaker, fills us in on another analysis of Cy Young candidate Eric Gagne:

You may have had your fill of Eric Gagne-for-Cy Young notes, but I wanted to call your attention to an article in the Wall Street Journal that ran back on September 5th. Written by Allen St. John in his "By the Numbers" column, it was titled "How to Spell Relief". In the column, he discusses a stat called OFB (off-base percentage), which measures how effective a relief pitcher is at getting the job done. Gagne had an OFB of .804 in the article, tops in the majors. I haven't run the calculation to see what his OFB is now but at the time, he rated ahead of Seattle's Soriano (.790) and Atlanta's Smoltz (.771)

OFB is calculated by taking the number of outs a pitcher records and dividing it by the number of batters he faces. St. John goes on in the article to say that the stat can also assess entire bullpens. The Dodgers were tops in the majors (at that writing) with a .727 OFB, ahead of Seattle and Anaheim. By comparison, the Yankees bullpen had an OFB of .657.

Regards,
Kent Whitaker
Newcastle, ME (A snowball's throw from Waldoboro, Maine, where former Dodger Clyde Sukeforth passed away September 3, 2000)

Jon Weisman (link)

Monday, September 15, 2003

 

Beltre: Good Hitting or Dumb Pitching?

Adrian Beltre is mashing the ball, no doubt. An .850 OPS after the All-Star Game - a 1.167 OPS in September.

During that time, however, his walks have decreased. He has walked nine times in more than 200 plate appearances since the All-Star Game - once in September.

Has he perfected the ability to hit bad balls, or will he slump once pitchers learn how not to give him anything to hit again?


Jon Weisman (link)

 

Catchers Watching

Todd Hundley has had one at-bat since his home run against Colorado on September 5.

Koyie Hill has had no at-bats since his debut RBI double on the same day. His career average remains 1.000, with a 3.000 OPS.

Then, there's Dave Ross. Ross hadn't had a swing since September 2 until his two-homer game Sunday. In 113 at-bats, Ross has nine home runs - fifth on the team. He has two more home runs than Paul Lo Duca.

Lo Duca has two extra-base hits in September. He may be the blood and guts of the Dodger team, but he's got backups. It'll be interesting to see how he comes out against Schilling on Tuesday with two days off.

Jon Weisman (link)

 

Four on the Florida

The Marlins. Could it really be the Marlins?

From World Series title to fire sale to another playoff appearance - all in the time since the Dodgers last made the playoffs?

On Priorities & Frivolities today, Robert Garcia Tagorda makes one point that I was going to make - that the Dodgers have upped their power recently - and another point that I hadn't realized - that Florida is outpitching them.

Do you realize that, in September, the Dodgers have hit the third most home runs among all National League teams -- just one behind Philadelphia and Colorado, who've hit 18? Meanwhile, their pitching has stayed sharp with a 2.89 ERA, which is second in the majors.

But here's one reason why they're still 3.5 games back in the wild card standings: Florida has been just as good. Its 2.27 ERA is tops in the majors. Though it's scored about as many runs (62) as the Dodgers have this month, it's allowed considerably fewer runs (28). The Marlins are outscoring their opponents by nearly three runs per game (5.17 vs. 2.33).

Florida finally gave up a game when the Braves rallied for five runs in the ninth inning Sunday to salvage one of three games with the Marlins. There remain four other teams in the hunt with Florida for the two remaining playoff spots: Houston, Chicago, Philadelphia and the Dodgers.

Of all the teams in the National League, the Marlins have the toughest remaining schedule, according to Baseball Prospectus. But Florida is apparently playing such good ball that the site now has the Marlins as the favorites to hold on for the wild card.

Still ...

Chicago still has enough of a schedule advantage to win the National League Central - in fact, it wouldn't shock me if they were in first place by Thursday, playing the Mets while the Astros are in Coors Field. Or, Houston could outpitch the Rockies in Colorado, putting both NL Central teams in playoff position if Florida starts to falter.

Of course, if Florida falters, that will mean Philadelphia has done something right.

And the Dodgers?

We'll see what happens after they face Curt Schilling. He's ready to go on Tuesday at Dodger Stadium. But in any case, it doesn't look like they'll be allowed to slacken their .667 pace (26-13) since August 2. If anything, they may have to extend their recent .765 run (13-4).

I'll be watching, even though it almost seems too much to ask. If the Dodgers somehow make the playoffs, boy, will they have earned it.


Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 8.9 percent
September 14: 6.1 percent
September 12: 3.8 percent
September 11: 7.1 percent
September 10: 9.7 percent
September 9: 9.4 percent
September 8: 5.4 percent
September 7: 5.3 percent
September 6: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent


Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 14
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
90 ... Florida (54.9 percent)
88 ... Philadelphia (33.2 percent)
87 ... Los Angeles (8.9 percent)
87 ... Chicago (1.8 percent)
84 ... Arizona (0.1 percent)
82 ... St. Louis (0.3 percent)
82 ... Montreal (0.0 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)
Jon Weisman (link)